In 1968, Paul Ehrlich predicted mass starvation and became a celebrity. Economist Julian Simon bet him it wouldn't happen — and won. After 35 years, Tim O'Connor keeps coming back to the same lesson: never invest based on a forecast or prediction. The experts are wrong far more often than we remember.

Daniel has played golf his whole life and never made a hole-in-one, while beginners do it all the time. It's a good reminder that luck and risk are siblings. What actually builds a life — or a portfolio — is the unglamorous work of focusing on what's in your control.